Suchergebnisse

"This paper assesses the economy-wide impact of implementing and financing a universal or basic income grant (BIG) in South Africa. The various financing scenarios suggested by the proponents of the grant are presented, and these are compared using an applied general equilibrium model for the South African economy. The results indicate that the required changes in direct and indirect tax rates needed to finance the grant without increasing the government deficit are substantially higher than currently predicted. Furthermore, the alternative of reducing government recurrent expenditure to finance the BIG will undoubtedly undermine other government policy objectives. The paper therefore proposes a shift in the current debate, away from determining which of the individual financing options is preferable, towards an acknowledgement that a 'balanced' approach is likely to provide the only feasible scenario. Furthermore, the impact of the grant on economic growth is found to hinge on its ability to enhance factor productivity. These results suggest that the possibility of South Africa becoming the continent's first welfare state is as likely to rest with the macroeconomic impacts of financing the grant, as with the ability of the grant to address the country's prevailing poverty." -- Author's Abstract. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1 ; FCND

It is too soon to assess the full economic impacts that COVID-19 lockdowns will have on developing countries. But early research indicates that many African economies are significantly impacted and that poorer households are struggling. IFPRI is conducting a series of country studies, in collaboration with local and government partners, that use economywide models to estimate the impacts of lockdowns, assess the exposure of food systems, and identify vulnerable population groups. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI4; CRP2; COVID-19 Measuring Impacts and Prioritizing Policies for Recovery ; DSGD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

This paper documents a Ugandan Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the year 2007. The SAM is based on newly estimated supply-use tables, national accounts, government budgets, and balance of payments. The SAM reconciles these data using cross-entropy estimation techniques. The final SAM is a detailed representation of Uganda's economy. It separates 37 activities and commodities; 5 types of factors of production; and 5 representative household groups. Labor and household information is drawn from a nationally representative household survey. The SAM also identifies government, investment and foreign accounts. It provides an ideal tool for economy-wide impact assessments, including SAM-based multiplier analysis and computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1 ; DSGD

Like many African countries, Kenya is vulnerable to avian flu given its position along migratory bird routes and proximity to other high risk countries. This raises concern about the effect of an outbreak on rural livelihoods. We use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of Kenya to simulate outbreaks of different severities, durations and geographic spreads. Results indicate that even a severe outbreak does not greatly reduce economic growth. It does, however, have larger implications for poverty, since poultry is an income source for many poor farmers and a major food item in poor consumers' baskets. Reducing an outbreak's duration and spatial transmission substantially reduces economic losses, although losses still occur when poultry demand falls, even without a confirmed outbreak. Continued monitoring of poultry production and trade is therefore needed, even if an outbreak has not yet occurred. Efforts to enhance government capacity to respond rapidly to infections and improve farmers' and consumers' awareness of avian flu are also needed. ; IFPRI3; ISI ; DSGD ; PR

"This paper assesses the economy-wide impact of implementing and financing a universal or basic income grant (BIG) in South Africa. The various financing scenarios suggested by the proponents of the grant are presented, and these are compared using an applied general equilibrium model for the South African economy. The results indicate that the required changes in direct and indirect tax rates needed to finance the grant without increasing the government deficit are substantially higher than currently predicted. Furthermore, the alternative of reducing government recurrent expenditure to finance the BIG will undoubtedly undermine other government policy objectives. The paper therefore proposes a shift in the current debate, away from determining which of the individual financing options is preferable, towards an acknowledgement that a 'balanced' approach is likely to provide the only feasible scenario. Furthermore, the impact of the grant on economic growth is found to hinge on its ability to enhance factor productivity. These results suggest that the possibility of South Africa becoming the continent's first welfare state is as likely to rest with the macroeconomic impacts of financing the grant, as with the ability of the grant to address the country's prevailing poverty." -- Author's Abstract. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1 ; TMD

Using the case of Zambia, this paper examines whether structural change translates into reduced poverty and improved social welfare through an empirical and systematic analysis of the country's growth trajectory during 1991–2010. We find that growth after 2002 was accompanied by positive structural change, but most new jobs were in the low-wage, insecure informal sector in urban areas. Due to the demands of an expanding middle class, construction and high-value services also generated additional jobs, but the share of employment growth from these sectors was small and skewed more toward higher-skilled Zambians. Consequently, for a majority of the population, large-scale social transformation did not follow from structural change. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; F Strengthening institutions and governance ; DSGD

Today's resource boom in Africa, driven by Asian economic growth, offers new opportunities for resource-rich African countries. Contrary to the experience of previous booms, however, most mining profits now accrue to foreign companies, leaving little room for governments to use revenues for pro-poor investments or to mitigate adverse distributional impacts. Taking Zambia as a case study, this paper shows that despite privatization, Dutch disease remains a valid concern and may hamper economic diversification, worsen income distribution, and undermine poverty reduction strategies. Mining royalties must, therefore, be increased and used to finance growth-inducing investments that encourage pro-poor economic diversification, else many African countries will remain caught in a resource trap." -- from Author's Abstract ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; GRP3; Country and regional food, nutrition, and agricultural strategies ; DSGD

Zambia is one of the poorest countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Almost three-quarters of the population were considered poor at the start of the 1990s, with a vast majority of these people concentrated in rural and remote areas. This extreme poverty arose in spite of Zambia's seemingly promising prospects following independence. To better understand the failure of growth and poverty-reduction this paper first considers the relationship between the structure of growth and Zambia's evolving political economy. A strong urban-bias has shaped the country's growth path leading to an economy both artificially and unsustainably distorted in favor of manufacturing and mining at the expense of rural areas. For agriculture it was the maize-bias of public policies that undermined export and growth potential within this sector.Sustained investment and economic growth during recent years suggest a possible change of fortune for Zambia. In light of this renewed growth, the paper uses a dynamic and spatially-disaggregated economy-wide model linked to a household survey to examine the potential for future poverty-reduction.Although agricultural growth is essential for substantial poverty-reduction, the country's large poor urban population necessitates growth in non-agriculture. The findings suggest that returning to a copper-led growth path is not pro-poor and that non-mining urban growth, although undermined by foreign exchange shortages and inadequate private investment, is likely to be preferable for reducing poverty." -- Authors' Abstract ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; GRP3; Theme 9; ReSAKSS ; DSGD

The government of Ethiopia is investing significant public resources to increase overall national production of teff, wheat, and maize. To better understand the likely economywide effects of increases of between 12 and 14 percent in the national production of these cereals, a set of production increase scenarios for each crop were run using a computable general equilibrium model of the Ethiopian economy. The analyses were extended to also consider the effects of several international wheat price and wheat import scenarios, a wheat subsidy program, and maize exports. Among the effects considered are changes in economic growth, prices, total household consumption, cereal and calorie consumption levels, and poverty measures. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; GRP32 ; DSGD

Zambia is one of the poorest countries in Africa. Despite substantial reform during the 1990s, the economy has remained heavily dependent on urban-based mining. Copper's long-standing dominance led to a strong bias against agriculture, which undermined the sector's growth and export potential. Consequently poverty has remained concentrated within marginalized rural areas. Recent volatility in copper exports and growing foreign debt indicate the need for further economic diversification and pro-poor growth. These needs have been clearly identified in the country's Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP), which outlines a series of policy objectives aimed at combating HIV/AIDS, reversing the deterioration of education and rural infrastructure, and accelerating agricultural growth. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the potential impact on inequality and poverty of the key PRSP policies, as well as the effects of foreign debt forgiveness and changes in the copper sector. The findings suggest that, in the absence of very rapid growth, the pro-poor policies outlined in the PRSP will not enable Zambia to reach its Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of halving poverty by 2015. Achieving this goal will require gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at an annual rate of over ten percent. Reduction in poverty can however be achieved by addressing HIV/AIDS, which currently reduces annual GDP growth by one percent. Furthermore, substantial poverty-reduction can occur through the acceleration of agricultural growth, although limited market opportunities necessitates supporting investment in rural infrastructure. Overall, the potential of the agricultural sector depends on the government's commitment to reforms and the continued removal of the antiagricultural bias created by the dominant copper sector." -- Authors' Abstract ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1 ; DSGD

Theories underlying the relationship between urbanization and transformation are being challenged by trends in Sub-Saharan African countries, since many have yet to observe their own "green" or industrial revolutions, despite moderate urbanization. Africa's trajectory is very different than those of other developing regions, a main reason for which is the region's significant "youth bulge" and the lack of a labor market outlet for this growing subpopulation. In many countries, the youth are driving the (albeit slow) movement out of agriculture, yet rather than migrating to urban areas, many are finding (usually informal) work in secondary cities, their peri-urban spaces, and the rural nonfarm economy. This book examines the overall trends in youth migration, policies, and political activism, then looks specifically at five African case studies to identify key trends and provide recommendations on encouraging youth to spur structural change. Conclusions reached in this book include that the rate of structural transformation varies among countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, but in most cases, it is the youth who are driving these changes. Education, access to financial services, and agricultural productivity contribute to this structural transformation and can act as pushes or pulls out of agriculture for the youth. However, when structural transformation policies are not pro-poor or inclusive, it can result in higher levels of youth under- and unemployment. Thus, the conclusions point to recommendations focusing on agricultural productivity, the rural nonfarm economy and informal sectors especially along agriculture value chains, access to finance and savings, infrastructure, and education.

Introduction: African youth at a crossroads / Danielle Resnick and James Thurlow -- Youth employment prospects in Africa / James Thurlow -- Protesting for a better tomorrow? Youth mobilization in Africa / Danielle Resnick -- Cities of youth : post-millennial cases of mobility and sociality / Karen Tranberg Hansen -- Youth in Tanzania's urbanizing mining settlements : prospecting a mineralized future / Deborah Fahy Bryceson -- Young people, agriculture and employment in rural Africa / James Sumberg, Nana Akua Anyidoho, Michael Chasukwa, Blessings Chinsinga, Jennifer Leavy, Getnet Tadele, Stephen Whitfield, and Joseph Yaro -- Education policy, vocational training, and the youth in Sub-Saharan Africa / Moses Oketch -- The success of learnerships : lessons from South Africa's training and education programme / Neil Rankin, Gareth Roberts, and Volker Schoer -- Conclusions: moving beyond conventional wisdoms / Danielle Resnick and James Thurlow.

With the outbreak of COVID-19, governments attempted to contain the spread of the virus by limiting the movement and interaction of people through a variety of measures, including restrictions on domestic and international travel, social distancing, and "lockdowns" that temporarily shut down non-essential businesses (IFPRI 2020). While governments had control over these domestic measures, they could do little to shield economies from disruptions to global trade or declines in foreign investment and tourism. Amid uncertainty about how the pandemic would unfold, IFPRI worked with local partners during 2020 to develop economywide models to analyze the impacts of COVID-19 measures on economic growth, food systems, and livelihoods in approximately 30 countries (Pauw, Smart, and Thurlow 2021). Initially, social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier models were used to trace quarterly and annual shocks during the 2020 calendar year. The real-time analysis provided by these results could potentially be used by policymakers to inform the design of COVID-19 restrictions (for example, in terms of sector targeting or duration) and remedial measures (such as targeted cash transfers or firm subsidies). ; Non-PR ; IFPRI4; CRP4; CRP2 ; DSGD; DGO; A4NH; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH); CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

Sub-Saharan Africa's rural population is growing rapidly, and more young people are entering the labour market every year. This raises serious policy questions. Can rural economies absorb enough job seekers? Could better-educated youth transform Africa's rural economies by adopting new technologies and starting businesses? Are policymakers responding to the youth employment challenge? Or will there be widespread unemployment, social instability, and an exodus to cities and abroad? Youth and Jobs in Rural Africa: Beyond Stylized Facts uses survey data to build a nuanced understanding of the constraints and opportunities facing rural youth in Africa. Addressing the questions of Africa's rural youth is currently hampered by major gaps in our knowledge and stylized facts from cross-country trends or studies that do not focus on the core issues. Youth and Jobs in Rural Africa takes a different approach, drawing on household and firm surveys from selected African countries with an explicit focus on rural youth. It argues that a balance between alarm and optimism is warranted, and that Africa's "youth bulge" is not an unprecedented challenge. Jobs in rural areas are limited, but agriculture is transforming and youth are participating, adopting new technologies and running businesses. Governments have adopted youth employment as a priority, but policies often do not address the specific needs of rural populations. Youth and Jobs in Rural Africa emphasizes that by going beyond stylized facts and drawing on more granular analysis, we can design effective policies to turn Africa's youth problem into an opportunity for rural transformation.